TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers67c1,330$890 inWon+$440.342,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks17c1,014$173 inLost-$172.642,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks33c618.16$204 inLost-$203.991,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks33c393.76$130 inLost-$129.945,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc4…5a94backed Milwaukee Brewers67c200$134 inWon+$66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Arizona Diamondbacks33c157.88$52 inLost-$52.118648.4%90 W · 96 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Arizona Diamondbacks33c146.93$48 inLost-$48.491,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Arizona Diamondbacks34c100$34 inLost-$3468942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e6…a1ecbacked Milwaukee Brewers80c62$50 inWon+$12.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks33c50.12$17 inLost-$16.542,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks33c38.24$13 inLost-$12.621,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Milwaukee Brewers67c15.04$10 inWon+$4.9614353.1%76 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.