MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb635adb22b90ddd11c5c013ee8d986fe57369056e7dbd3f7156623471ecc76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 3,284$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 2,985$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.32 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 1,693$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.91 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…226ebacked Over | 49c | 1,608$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 48c | 1,381$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.36 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 1,306$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.84 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 1,257$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.23 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 48c | 1,000$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 12c | 526.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 462.94$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 50c | 395.89$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 52c | 305.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 268.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 252.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 48c | 250.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 242.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 236.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 45c | 130.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 52c | 82.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 71.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 47c | 52.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 46c | 31.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 52c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 46c | 24.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Under | 50c | 20.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 54c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-6.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-8.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.