MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8b38d37c313c63afa33c4577b90ecb833df6d4d83e47eeaa5a24edc8768a8f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 1,478$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.44 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 1,055$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 622.88$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 221.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 140.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 137$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 126.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 119.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 113.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 86.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 80.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 76.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 73.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 66.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 62.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 20c | 50.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 49.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 49.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 40.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 16.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-6.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-8.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.