Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0603a44c80bf36414934770f267d3eb885d5050a394aeaca3308b59fd3989153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee5…cb8cbacked Down | 13c | 1,288$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Up | 64c | 1,208$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6965…55e7backed Down | 50c | 185.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…6a2abacked Down | 50c | 185.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…cf72backed Down | 50c | 185.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f4…3ceabacked Down | 50c | 185.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…ad47backed Down | 50c | 185.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafa…edc5backed Down | 50c | 185.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bc…867ebacked Down | 50c | 185.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…01d4backed Down | 50c | 185.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b2…5d4abacked Down | 50c | 185.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…21afbacked Down | 50c | 185.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…3ab8backed Down | 50c | 185.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…e028backed Down | 50c | 185.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf288…6be5backed Down | 50c | 185.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006e…f883backed Down | 50c | 185.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…8f24backed Down | 50c | 185.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…6843backed Down | 50c | 185.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…b574backed Down | 50c | 185.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfc…5633backed Down | 50c | 185.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…c966backed Down | 50c | 185.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…e56ebacked Up | 50c | 185.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…c95bbacked Up | 50c | 185.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cf…72f4backed Up | 50c | 185.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…a915backed Up | 50c | 185.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…3af6backed Up | 50c | 185.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3044…dc8dbacked Up | 50c | 185.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5228…9223backed Up | 50c | 185.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…3dbabacked Up | 50c | 185.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…18e5backed Up | 50c | 185.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0e2bbacked Up | 50c | 185.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…0ab1backed Up | 50c | 185.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd6…3499backed Up | 50c | 185.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb709…600ebacked Up | 50c | 185.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…80efbacked Up | 50c | 185.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…07d7backed Up | 50c | 185.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…d94cbacked Up | 50c | 185.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…abbabacked Up | 50c | 185.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…1b46backed Up | 50c | 185.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…e951backed Up | 50c | 185.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4deebacked Up | 50c | 185.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…751bbacked Down | 50c | 179.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Up | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Down | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Up | 19c | 53.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…8a92backed Up | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.