Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062bf3d32cef4514bf2e59be3babae2f231db344c6c1ca1e5b9fe66db80fdf39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8a0…3ea7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 2,158$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.66 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 77c | 1,960$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.27 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 20c | 549.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 23c | 521.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 4c | 299.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 21c | 293.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 12c | 260$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 19c | 236.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 77c | 147.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 78c | 63.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked No | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-10-02?No won
- Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.