Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf48413d2903bcea445d5a5fda172fa3897b6bb904722e8e3433a3ee709dee5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 6c | 7,382$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.49 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 21c | 3,800$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 3,050$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed No | 80c | 2,584$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,196$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.4 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 20c | 1,930$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 20c | 1,681$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.16 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…8c3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,165$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 5c | 1,165$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 17c | 699.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes | 17c | 464.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 356.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 16c | 315.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…550dbacked Yes | 18c | 217.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 18c | 215.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 8c | 205.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…ba1abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 18c | 114.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 18c | 110.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 21c | 99.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 16c | 93.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will Lyon vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.