Fifa International · resolved market
Will Russia win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0671069328cecba4ee12ee9d23420b18b27e45b51932e19ed5a4e8dee65bc2cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 30c | 675.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed No | 43c | 455.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 37c | 357.32$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.97 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed No | 69c | 280.56$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 35c | 212$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 35c | 188.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592a…efa7backed Yes | 62c | 186.77$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed Yes | 64c | 158.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 61c | 156.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 65c | 153.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 21c | 149.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…a344backed Yes | 57c | 140.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 43c | 116.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 35c | 111$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…03ccbacked Yes | 66c | 90.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…f002backed Yes | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…3d04backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…8ab6backed Yes | 79c | 42.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…a765backed Yes | 79c | 42.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed Yes | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Yes | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…254dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed No | 64c | 24.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…dc60backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…454cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will Chile win on 2025-11-15?Yes won
- Will Russia vs. Chile end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.