Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06efcf592ae67963d098e7a09a68dce32a155b6c36222cedeea0e678c38d1f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.58 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 657$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.75 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 28c | 291.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 51c | 269.43$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 53c | 221.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 53c | 206.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 168$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 364 | 62.9%229 W · 135 L | +32.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 168$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Yes | 58c | 162.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 25c | 60.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 50.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe0…e3e0backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 35c | 34.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 79c | 13.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-24?No won
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.