Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070733a20e22f30454cecafea367fa538dbf1e78c3457ab914f491856f475c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,198$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 273.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 253.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 201.57$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 196.25$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 9c | 170.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 34c | 143.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 137.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 74c | 92.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 74.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 25c | 60.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 30c | 54.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 45.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…3b66backed No | 80c | 38.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 80c | 35.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 33.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 74c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 80c | 21.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 79c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 79c | 17.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.