Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f8104d9ab132433bd8fbbfb68a178bc0d796c50e8f12c242a8d76b511b00aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 5c | 769.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 32c | 664.45$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 656.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.8 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 3c | 544.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.27 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 12c | 496.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 75c | 452.68$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.64 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 269.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 258.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…a606backed No | 11c | 258.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 6c | 214.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.56 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 197.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 192.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed No | 16c | 173.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 7c | 154.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 74c | 152.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 72c | 147.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 135.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…20bfbacked Yes | 78c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 107.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 12c | 104.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 102.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 19c | 98.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 62c | 96.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 20c | 96.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 74c | 92.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 16c | 91.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 72c | 89.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 37c | 89.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 86.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 83.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 14c | 77.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 46c | 74.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 57c | 71.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 43c | 68.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 68.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…5c68backed No | 76c | 67.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 64.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 61c | 57.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 66c | 53.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 37c | 51.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 53c | 48.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 47.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 40c | 47.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed No | 51c | 43.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed Yes | 56c | 42.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 41c | 41.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 65c | 38.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…c655backed No | 41c | 37.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 36.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 61c | 35.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 30.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 43c | 27.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 67c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…387ebacked No | 80c | 23.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 51c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…af76backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…b3c1backed Yes | 80c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 73c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 77c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.