Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e042a2280e69bbcf009a16f0a9355b9abd48d6a09595485855722e330df984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 264.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 212.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 202.08$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 189.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 15c | 165.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 119.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…8ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 106.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 26c | 104.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 26c | 104.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 22c | 89.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 13c | 74.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 73.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 21c | 72.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 16c | 72.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 41c | 72.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 70c | 69.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…b3c1backed Yes | 22c | 69.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 38c | 66.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 61.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked No | 50c | 54.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 54.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 22c | 53.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 47c | 52.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 38c | 52.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 24c | 52.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed Yes | 42c | 51.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 47.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 46.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 45.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 39.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 33c | 34.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 44c | 33.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 59c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 32.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 63c | 30.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 67c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 63c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…fc51backed Yes | 58c | 19.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.