MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074395e57ab650ebaa5d01dc1c81d8f525c898c14470e35b99da3f2ac5b4d908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 825.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.73 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 530.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.27 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 446$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.13 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 395.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 241.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 196.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 186$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 129$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 1,299 | 56.7%737 W · 562 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 91.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Dodgers vs. DiamondbacksDodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.