Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075558e11fe944175a14c38cbda8e43962938d98f3387f9e44cc739ea84e0ceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Inner Circle, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc736…7255backed Inner Circle | 43c | 7,931$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Inner Circle | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Virtus.pro | 63c | 4,525$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.22 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 2,032$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…c4d7backed Inner Circle | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 854.19$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.49 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Virtus.pro | 65c | 650.28$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.11 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Inner Circle | 53c | 530$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.9 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Inner Circle | 33c | 344$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…594fbacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 342.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Virtus.pro | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Virtus.pro | 74c | 272.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 264.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.88 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Inner Circle | 57c | 179$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Inner Circle | 31c | 162.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff4…9a30backed Inner Circle | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 44c | 102.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Virtus.pro | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 34c | 87.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…e99bbacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 85.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Virtus.pro | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…4d37backed Inner Circle | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Virtus.pro | 67c | 52.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed Inner Circle | 43c | 46.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Inner Circle | 25c | 45.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…2332backed Inner Circle | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle | 36c | 41.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28cb…9024backed Inner Circle | 63c | 33.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Inner Circle | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ce…fd71backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Virtus.pro | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Virtus.pro | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group StageVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.