Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0756e39ea5afb50576ed58e949445b07c7caafa2e228db928fd3bcfce6d425a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 17c | 1,159$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed No | 28c | 551.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.09 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 63c | 481.09$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.52 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 453.39$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 54c | 409.46$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 71c | 321.85$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 314.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 300.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked Yes | 62c | 273.65$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 79c | 262.71$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 250.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 61c | 245.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 54c | 226.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 68c | 188.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 19c | 170.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 72c | 154.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 77c | 152.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 70c | 148.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 60c | 138.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b1…2c73backed Yes | 9c | 137.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 128.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 69c | 98.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 21c | 88.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…1a06backed Yes | 80c | 78.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 36c | 74.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ff…f93abacked No | 33c | 68.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 63.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 79c | 61.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 60.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 54c | 59.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 57.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 45c | 56.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 69c | 54.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 42c | 45.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 44.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 64c | 40.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 52c | 39.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5492…9776backed No | 57c | 37.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 46c | 37.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 47c | 37.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 28c | 36.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 55c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed No | 78c | 33.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 43c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 72c | 32.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 58c | 30.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 78c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 73c | 25.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 78c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 71c | 22.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 80c | 21.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 65c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 66c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.