NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Abbotsford Canucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075e5ed40328bfaecbf5a6524dcd3dbea6b294d0a966bd3197dff4f929edff40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bakersfield Condorsof Bakersfield Condors, Abbotsford Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Abbotsford Canucks | 40c | 4,305$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.63 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bakersfield Condors | 62c | 1,518$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.68 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…70e4backed Bakersfield Condors | 74c | 1,452$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Bakersfield Condors | 58c | 1,410$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.27 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Abbotsford Canucks | 42c | 444$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Bakersfield Condors | 58c | 301.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Bakersfield Condors | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bakersfield Condors | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Bakersfield Condors | 56c | 139$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Bakersfield Condors | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Bakersfield Condors | 56c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Bakersfield Condors | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Bakersfield Condors | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…56c5backed Abbotsford Canucks | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Bakersfield Condors | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Abbotsford Canucks | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.