Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x078294cd61d21d10bb77e6baf8437fb42f3663a94905a355436f04f575be4219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 6c | 9,999$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Under | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 16c | 3,722$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.04 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 3,402$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.88 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Under | 57c | 1,463$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 430.63$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 54c | 229.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 71.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 47c | 68.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…3ccfbacked Over | 47c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674e…4f16backed Under | 55c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Le Havre AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.