College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x078f276d112d40337b36a29b5d2c6260a91f516b70523ea41a6cc8424d135cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizonaof Arizona, Baylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Arizona | 52c | 30,037$15,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,417.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Baylor | 48c | 20,419$9,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,819.01 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Arizona | 51c | 5,187$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.63 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Baylor | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Baylor | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Baylor | 48c | 4,429$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.92 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona | 49c | 1,033$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Baylor | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Baylor | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arizona | 50c | 995.6$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.8 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baylor | 45c | 363.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Arizona | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…2fbcbacked Baylor | 51c | 331.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Baylor | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Baylor | 49c | 188.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Baylor | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Arizona | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Baylor | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Arizona | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Arizona | 39c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Arizona | 52c | 76.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Baylor | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Baylor | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Baylor | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Baylor | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona (-6.5)this page
- Baylor vs. ArizonaArizona won
- O/U 62.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona (-7.5)Arizona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.