Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a8f5c617e408f649107026977358997a9812ff6ff86d4d1780501fa7919527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 960.89$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.29 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 21c | 576.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.07 | 377 | 56.2%212 W · 165 L | +30.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 60c | 224.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 7c | 206.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed No | 74c | 181.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 33c | 180.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 173.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 168.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 25c | 141.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 129.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 18c | 129$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 557 | 26%145 W · 412 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 117.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 115.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 112.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 14c | 85.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 79c | 71.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 72c | 65.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed No | 24c | 60.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 32c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 39.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 26c | 39.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 34c | 38.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 48c | 32.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 70c | 29.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 63c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 26.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 80c | 16.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.