Australian A League · resolved market
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07e18e2254afbbb5bb21af8da7d84e65f432b48b407829e853f4d768eb3e939f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 1,473$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.39 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 74c | 1,204$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 622.56$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.19 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 405$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 8c | 401.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…0287backed Yes | 26c | 379.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 284.79$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…4be7backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 85.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 24c | 65.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 75c | 30.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Perth Glory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
- Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.