Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7396ba33f56fbdf686a86a4b388a67312d8a578f2f7f8e78bac7475f2c41b6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 62c | 8,000$4,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,959.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 38c | 3,588$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.17 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 2,971$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked No | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked No | 41c | 1,495$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 36c | 1,488$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.62 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 40c | 1,264$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 63c | 1,106$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.61 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 61c | 985.57$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 59c | 936.1$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fb…d909backed Yes | 39c | 697.44$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 660.14$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a9…67a0backed Yes | 39c | 620.51$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 38c | 421.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…0611backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 38c | 395$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 38c | 372.2$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 40c | 342.87$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 39c | 274.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 64c | 273.44$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 60c | 239.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Yes | 71c | 212.68$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 41c | 205.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 62c | 195$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…b312backed Yes | 40c | 188.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 166.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Yes | 62c | 161.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 61c | 159.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…d26ebacked Yes | 77c | 158.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 37c | 154.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 38c | 134.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 39c | 126.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 64c | 126$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 29c | 122.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed No | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 69c | 103$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 95.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…1096backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 49c | 70.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 51c | 70.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Yes | 61c | 39.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d33…3701backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…ea07backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 69c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Perth Glory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.