Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07febfc34b95668c3af951dc736ae9ea1d28f937a5c9388ab5b5ee7bb257d37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Pliskova, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Pliskova | 15c | 29,354$4,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,403.12 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pliskova | 1c | 7,810$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Pliskova | 16c | 6,442$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Pliskova | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Pliskova | 18c | 4,960$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.73 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Pliskova | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Pliskova | 15c | 3,000$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.78 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pliskova | 12c | 2,016$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.01 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Pliskova | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Pliskova | 16c | 1,720$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.2 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Pliskova | 9c | 1,676$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pliskova | 6c | 1,288$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Pliskova | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Pliskova | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Pliskova | 12c | 643.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Pliskova | 17c | 627.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…811ebacked Pliskova | 16c | 568.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked Pliskova | 6c | 532.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Pliskova | 15c | 374$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pliskova | 10c | 371.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Pliskova | 6c | 256.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Pliskova | 8c | 250.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a4…4cc5backed Pliskova | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pliskova | 15c | 217$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Pliskova | 16c | 206.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Pliskova | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Pliskova | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Pliskova | 15c | 117.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812d…8f72backed Pliskova | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Pliskova | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed Pliskova | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Pliskova | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…0cf5backed Pliskova | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Karolina Pliskova vs Madison Keysthis page
- Pliskova vs. Keys: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs KeysKeys won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5)Keys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.