Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08043650e87da5ac907f7480c5961c056627f0ba2cd328a01b8ef12597943cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 491.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 475.37$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 27c | 299.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 214$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 118.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 108.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 91.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 77.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 74.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…ef0abacked Yes | 25c | 66.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 31c | 60.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 53.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 52.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 51.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 46.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.