F1 · resolved market
F1 Belgian GP: Hamilton vs. Russell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08087a03a4688e5a0627bed00e3f9b71413b024b9bd8520c4dae7aa7ee28742e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Russell of Hamilton, Russell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Hamilton | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Hamilton | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Russell | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Russell | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…9574backed Hamilton | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Hamilton | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Russell | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…819dbacked Hamilton | 53c | 28.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…65c0backed Hamilton | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Russell | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Hamilton | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- F1 Belgian GP: Hamilton vs. Russell this page
- F1 Belgian GP: Albon vs. Sainz Albon won
- F1 Belgian GP: Alonso vs. Stroll Stroll won
- F1 Belgian GP: Hadjar vs. TsunodaTsunoda won
- F1 Belgian GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- F1 Belgian GP: Leclerc vs. Russell Leclerc won
- F1 Belgian GP: Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- F1 Belgian GP: Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- F1 Belgian GP: Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- F1 Belgian GP: Verstappen vs. Piastri Piastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.