Tennis · resolved market
Zadar: Martin Krumich vs John Sperle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08195b81f48437e6fbffc590e8024eba3c2c901cc85ca3a3397cbcae431b8b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Martin Krumichof Martin Krumich, John Sperle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,743 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed John Sperle | 9c | 5,227$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.94 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed John Sperle | 14c | 3,515$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.29 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked John Sperle | 10c | 3,225$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.51 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed John Sperle | 13c | 1,221$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed John Sperle | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked John Sperle | 9c | 1,043$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed John Sperle | 19c | 563.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068a…6fe7backed John Sperle | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed John Sperle | 9c | 410$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed John Sperle | 14c | 346.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked John Sperle | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked John Sperle | 9c | 251.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed John Sperle | 22c | 235.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed John Sperle | 5c | 231$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked John Sperle | 19c | 207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed John Sperle | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked John Sperle | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked John Sperle | 23c | 152$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 203 | 36%73 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed John Sperle | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Martin Krumich | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed John Sperle | 14c | 123.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9b05backed John Sperle | 10c | 109.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed John Sperle | 19c | 109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Martin Krumich | 79c | 99.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Martin Krumich | 77c | 96.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Martin Krumich | 77c | 89.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…6463backed John Sperle | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Martin Krumich | 78c | 51.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked John Sperle | 22c | 48.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Martin Krumich | 75c | 46.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…ce9bbacked Martin Krumich | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…95c4backed Martin Krumich | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…5bb8backed Martin Krumich | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Martin Krumich | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0477backed Martin Krumich | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Martin Krumich | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zadar: Martin Krumich vs John Sperlethis page
- Krumich vs. Sperle: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Martin Krumich vs. John Sperle: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.