Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese vs. AS Roma end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x083aa21d01412579368e0475e025638650651b77b0f1f61499290951cd5edf70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 0c | 70,503$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 5,045$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.09 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 2,013$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.4 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 26c | 1,539$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 22c | 1,017$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 26c | 496.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 440$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 8c | 351.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 28c | 123.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 75c | 110.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 74c | 77.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese vs. AS Roma end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-23?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.