Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nice beat IF Elfsborg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08634004abbe5c3bf0c8cf7196446840140a3361365f026fae82436828dd928f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 58c | 904.06$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.3 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 58c | 546.9$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 59c | 519.18$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 40c | 491.58$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.63 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 42c | 255$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…09fdbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…425dbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 58c | 232$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 73c | 144.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…b909backed Yes | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 57c | 85.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 74c | 45.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…8b8abacked Yes | 40c | 40.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…2638backed No | 61c | 40.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…3d3cbacked Yes | 39c | 40.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc953…8cb8backed Yes | 42c | 34.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…e2a0backed No | 60c | 33.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 73c | 33.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…e953backed Yes | 40c | 32.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…58f3backed No | 59c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…cb3fbacked Yes | 42c | 25.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb6…e716backed No | 58c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…93a6backed Yes | 42c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…23b0backed No | 58c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd580…4263backed No | 59c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42a…5651backed No | 58c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…98b9backed No | 59c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ba…435bbacked No | 58c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nice beat IF Elfsborg?this page
- Will IF Elfsborg beat Nice?Yes won
- Will the match between IF Elfsborg and Nice end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.