Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08757fb0871bf8ba7562f07dbc892aba123daa919a779bcb1ab7b8757ec59814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.95 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 3,820$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 45c | 2,640$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.86 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 55c | 2,423$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.01 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 1,973$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.93 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked No | 55c | 1,752$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 57c | 1,191$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.3 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 812.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 46c | 782.61$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 1c | 690.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 43c | 637.21$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 410.86$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 44c | 390$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 43c | 316.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 40c | 300.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 186.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 15c | 173.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 134.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 44c | 109.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 107$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 44c | 93.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Yes | 17c | 65.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 64.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 60.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…12cbbacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 41c | 40.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.