South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0877ee50cde46faa855a6b09e2ee6b2e0ad798164442b385bc1a0469dd21b839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Botafogo FRof Botafogo FR, Club Independiente Petrolero
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Botafogo FR | 38c | 2,014$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.03 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Club Independiente Petrolero | 63c | 1,599$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.01 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Club Independiente Petrolero | 61c | 327$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Independiente Petrolero | 60c | 239$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Botafogo FR | 37c | 131.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Botafogo FR | 42c | 109.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Botafogo FR | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Botafogo FR | 39c | 84.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Club Independiente Petrolero | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Club Independiente Petrolero | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Club Independiente Petrolero | 58c | 78.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Botafogo FR | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Botafogo FR | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Club Independiente Petrolero | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Botafogo FR | 37c | 29.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)this page
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.