South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1758401cfd31f7a08fd39e6c453b0317281bfaf804773863d1cf3006dc089a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 55c | 1,888$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.6 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 1,500$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.01 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,065$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.65 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Over | 34c | 816.75$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 441.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 43c | 421.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.24 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 405.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.28 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 28c | 399.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 34c | 299.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c9…9a35backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 51c | 148.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Over | 33c | 138.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 135.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 99.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 51c | 96.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…883fbacked Under | 74c | 79.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 36c | 75.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 44.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 34.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 66c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5this page
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.