Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Zhang vs Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x087cc31da9a97fc11937361ccbd557d6aa7abc906900b6aae478bc6deaef6777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Zhang, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,299 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d0b…446bbacked Mannarino | 50c | 5,159$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998f…68adbacked Zhang | 50c | 4,491$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…669fbacked Zhang | 50c | 1,181$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…13c7backed Mannarino | 50c | 797$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7424…ce06backed Mannarino | 49c | 699.96$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Zhang | 52c | 650$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Mannarino | 54c | 552.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.19 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mannarino | 48c | 412.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Zhang | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Zhang | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…27d8backed Zhang | 50c | 284$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Zhang | 45c | 168.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Mannarino | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Zhang | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Zhang | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Mannarino | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Zhang | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Zhang | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Zhang | 51c | 19.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Zhang | 51c | 19.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Zhang vs Mannarinothis page
- Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian MannarinoAdrian Mannarino won
- Set Handicap: Zhang (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Mannarino won
- Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Zhizhen Zhang vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.