Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08aa53c130f6a6fe5eac72df56a0cee82e9a2ee580c94744e6ffc9a5abe1880d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 54c | 281.47$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 253.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 243.61$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 16c | 181.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 61c | 163.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 139.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 98.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 57c | 93.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 84.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 81.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd98…051bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 66.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 64.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 59.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…81f4backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 53.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…a28cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 32c | 47.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 45.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 29c | 44.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…292ebacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 26c | 42.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…835dbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 52c | 27.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 78c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 43c | 23.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 22.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 21.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 18.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 17.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 74c | 15.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 75c | 14.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 75c | 14.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.