Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e2c5b0a4e2b1cc4bd0a01a2c3566ee56a9d8e235b8ba92fd555c04f0f3f268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 10c | 13,494$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Yes | 9c | 12,780$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 5c | 5,180$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.02 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 4,321$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.89 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 9c | 3,325$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 10c | 3,162$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.46 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Yes | 10c | 2,222$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 1,987$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 8c | 1,241$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 10c | 882.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 9c | 686.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 411.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 9c | 373.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Yes | 10c | 204.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…3465backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…bfbfbacked Yes | 10c | 165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 10c | 162.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…24d3backed Yes | 9c | 120.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-22?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.