TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$673,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$689,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0764…e01fbacked No23c557,445$127,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,772.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes78c224,443$175,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,316.241241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Yes77c165,555$128,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,422.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Yes77c105,385$81,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,882.294055%22 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes78c51,279$39,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,448.61666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked No21c41,337$8,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,694.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes79c18,508$14,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,890.123,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes78c17,500$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes80c16,686$13,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,400.19850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes76c8,526$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.114846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes79c5,864$4,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No23c5,816$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.5615742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No20c5,780$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.075954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No21c5,610$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.036543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes80c4,761$3,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.7323745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa365…d26ebacked Yes80c4,281$3,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No21c4,208$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.592222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No22c3,050$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6667111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked Yes80c3,000$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Yes79c2,735$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.34524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed No21c1,800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3761323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.991442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed No26c1,474$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes78c1,388$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.9822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8a7…818bbacked Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No20c1,200$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No20c1,200$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Yes79c1,100$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Yes78c1,027$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cc…5e4ebacked No20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No22c826.84$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No21c800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes79c669.25$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5414157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Yes77c645$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.357100%7 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes79c642.86$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed Yes73c608$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.169053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No24c569.96$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.87335.6%26 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes79c569.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No21c468.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked No20c455.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed No22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b90…f4f2backed Yes78c452.56$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes79c450.13$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.394963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked No21c431.93$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…8c6bbacked Yes74c404.05$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.055100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Yes79c393.33$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb405…8771backed Yes79c381.01$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.01850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9c…e860backed Yes79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df8…6bf3backed Yes79c323.51$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes78c279.49$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.491070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes79c270$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.76350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No20c250.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe782…e7d9backed Yes79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No24c232$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.682166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes80c220$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a8…81f5backed Yes79c216.46$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.46757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes80c213.9$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.784671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No21c199.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.992759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc48d…8a40backed Yes79c199.25$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.842161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…7470backed Yes74c177.05$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab1c…f1fbbacked Yes74c157.53$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.96366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Yes79c154.18$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.383158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes78c153.34$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.732846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed No27c148.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Yes79c140$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fb…2b2abacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4c…b9cdbacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3533…6741backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed No20c108$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b90…710fbacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211090%9 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick75cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-45.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf566…bbb9backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No20c99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Yes76c97.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.383661.1%22 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+45.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x88ce…cb62backed Yes74c97.2$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+101.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked No22c91.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…4099backed Yes79c87.97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b8…af7abacked Yes80c87.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed No19c80.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.251414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfed6…a111backed Yes79c75.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.95580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c63…6e1abacked Yes79c75.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8408…8dbebacked Yes79c74.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7e…3520backed Yes80c69.78$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.