Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd36d14837f1084b4702c4753adaae116f16a90af284ba65a6f25cbd8c23162e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Yes | 13c | 13,119$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 14c | 7,143$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 12c | 1,034$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 627.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 14c | 592.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Yes | 17c | 291$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 7c | 225.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 13c | 78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.