Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f80a64191f8d61d85aa7189e86b68a0a8216a98730410212fd6fe67cf00a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 413.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 251.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 22c | 103.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 28c | 103$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 78c | 75.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 68.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed No | 75c | 34.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 49c | 33.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3614backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will UMF Breiðablik vs. Shamrock Rovers FC end in a draw?No won
- Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.