Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will UMF Breiðablik vs. Shamrock Rovers FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d5a99e7050607cf7407025763db453c1f400bb70ae696cf9992100d5dd80f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 585.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 549.33$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 329.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 37c | 294.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe060…fda8backed Yes | 50c | 105.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 54.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 49.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UMF Breiðablik vs. Shamrock Rovers FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.