Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9894272b8ca4029a9c1b9db28caec94bc9220178823e3720466143e01eb85100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 55c | 19,881$10,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,934.55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 4,080$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…2d16backed Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,071$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.95 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 57c | 866.52$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.83 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed Yes | 45c | 702$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 699$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.36 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 55c | 325.16$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 61c | 315.79$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 52c | 193.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 186.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 13c | 159.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 43c | 150.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 145.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…0723backed Yes | 53c | 135.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Yes | 34c | 118.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 23c | 111.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Yes | 45c | 74.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 59c | 70.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 52c | 47.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 45c | 40.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 61c | 34.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Yes | 53c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 54c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked No | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will UMF Breiðablik vs. Shamrock Rovers FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.