College Football · resolved market
UTEP vs. Missouri State: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x092da977cbdfbe87d4ea7d1dc519ce7b638e185b8d6527005861ac608c50867e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 52c | 23,943$12,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,335.94 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 12,160$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,284.95 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 11,043$5,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,702.34 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Under | 53c | 2,171$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.52 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 2,055$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.54 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 1,300$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Under | 51c | 555$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 127.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 53c | 115.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Under | 50c | 102.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 87.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UTEP vs. Missouri State: O/U 48.5this page
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Missouri State (-4.5)Missouri State won
- Spread: Missouri State (-5.5)Missouri State won
- Spread: Missouri State (-6.5)Missouri State won
- UTEP vs. Missouri StateMissouri State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.