Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0988faeaba295e09a94967065386ea2b984b57ee3befe76db479b8e1a03646cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 971.92$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 22c | 278.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 5c | 201.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 27c | 130.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 105.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 95.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb47…b8ebbacked Yes | 62c | 92.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a4…8ee1backed Yes | 47c | 87.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 49c | 87.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 74.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…442abacked No | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 63.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 23c | 55.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 47.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked No | 55c | 45.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…869dbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 41c | 36.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 36.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 54c | 34.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 30.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 27?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.