Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Kecmanovic (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099cb8fe28f315b39947ce0cbc970d6d3cb94dd6964173e45bf19b5774814733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kecmanovicof Sinner, Kecmanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x088b…21ccbacked Sinner | 76c | 3,249$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Kecmanovic | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kecmanovic | 25c | 599.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.58 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kecmanovic | 25c | 546.72$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.58 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Sinner | 75c | 543.07$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kecmanovic | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Sinner | 75c | 267.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…2a32backed Sinner | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…6664backed Sinner | 77c | 245.26$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Sinner | 76c | 221.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kecmanovic | 24c | 154$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…ae42backed Sinner | 74c | 135.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kecmanovic | 26c | 133.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sinner | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Kecmanovic | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Kecmanovic | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed Sinner | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Sinner | 72c | 98.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kecmanovic | 26c | 98.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kecmanovic | 60c | 90.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Sinner | 72c | 84.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 172 | 42.4%73 W · 99 L | -17.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Sinner | 79c | 83.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…e34ebacked Sinner | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Kecmanovic | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Kecmanovic | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Sinner | 74c | 53.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…9df3backed Sinner | 78c | 50.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sinner | 74c | 46.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Kecmanovic | 24c | 42.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Sinner | 76c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…88eabacked Sinner | 72c | 40.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Sinner | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8527…9a7fbacked Sinner | 75c | 27.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sinner | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Kecmanovic (+2.5)this page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicKecmanovic won
- Set 2 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicSinner won
- Set 3 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicKecmanovic won
- Set 4 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Kecmanovic (+1.5)Kecmanovic won
- Sinner vs. Kecmanovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir KecmanovicJannik Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.