Tennis · resolved market
Set 3 Winner: Sinner vs Kecmanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x245035f27c019998393d8fb0a19a5853603e93618685b27b34cd2e02857c440b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kecmanovicof Sinner, Kecmanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sinner | 70c | 422.57$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.32 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Kecmanovic | 36c | 374.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.54 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…cdf7backed Kecmanovic | 26c | 346.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Sinner | 69c | 197.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Sinner | 76c | 194.4$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Sinner | 75c | 175$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.75 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…68b6backed Kecmanovic | 23c | 171.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.46 | 112 | 14.3%16 W · 96 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Sinner | 65c | 156.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Kecmanovic | 25c | 154.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sinner | 75c | 125.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Kecmanovic | 16c | 111$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Sinner | 70c | 107.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Sinner | 72c | 103.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Kecmanovic | 35c | 99.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Sinner | 53c | 98.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Kecmanovic | 32c | 49.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sinner | 68c | 40.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed Sinner | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Kecmanovic | 30c | 36.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 627 | 49.4%310 W · 317 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Sinner | 76c | 19.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 3 Winner: Sinner vs Kecmanovicthis page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicKecmanovic won
- Set 2 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicSinner won
- Set 4 Winner: Sinner vs KecmanovicSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Kecmanovic (+1.5)Kecmanovic won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Kecmanovic (+2.5)Kecmanovic won
- Sinner vs. Kecmanovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir KecmanovicJannik Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.