Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3223d72f8a6674cfc8988bcbba73ab252dde313ec5bf4b279338b839f303f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 8,374$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.61 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 1,963$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.57 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 56c | 1,942$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.48 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 1,292$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.63 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 538.12$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.91 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Under | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +476.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 41c | 29.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-0.5)Racing Club de Lens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.