Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3445eab311a8003c0f78ab37db98f8af8261d8a9b4611f5f73509363a8dc00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.98 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 4,319$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…a7d5backed No | 68c | 1,524$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…d8debacked Yes | 32c | 1,522$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 14c | 706.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 30c | 666.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 68c | 371.75$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 67c | 328.66$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 32c | 268.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 10c | 255.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 68c | 203.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 30c | 203$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 68c | 199.96$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 198.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Yes | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 11c | 121.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…7db9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…2236backed Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5063…66dbbacked No | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 69c | 56.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 72c | 39.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 30c | 38.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 72c | 33.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 68c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…7f44backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.