Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x947599977c377e5704b4e92e8e9ce49c9ac6d273856de9c5102188601731ee03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 6,892$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 41c | 4,999$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.58 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 38c | 3,310$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.5 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 63c | 2,200$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 1,717$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 66c | 747$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.34 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 657.93$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.35 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 59c | 450.98$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b3…6bfcbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yes | 69c | 292.54$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 8c | 270.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 269.5$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.74 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 41c | 216$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 56c | 177.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 26c | 171.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e05…566ebacked Yes | 43c | 116.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…d7c1backed Yes | 54c | 74.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…ccc2backed Yes | 29c | 71.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 72c | 57.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…d73cbacked No | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…7f44backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b73…4045backed No | 74c | 16.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.