TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,830
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,830 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes43c42,432$18,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,245.7615134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No59c35,000$20,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,349.9911445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No60c33,430$20,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,332.961,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed Yes41c30,001$12,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,300.411154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes26c9,549$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.7810463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No58c8,319$4,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5323762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes20c6,563$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.753,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes41c4,767$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.469455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2907062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No65c2,763$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.6275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed No54c1,957$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.374447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No74c1,772$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.972,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes42c1,001$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-72.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes45c861$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.446347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3448764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No69c772.34$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.8655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes41c587.54$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked No59c510$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.15635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15211252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes45c370.38$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes42c358$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.361010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-76.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1296459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes42c269.05$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1132138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Yes42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Yes41c232.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.42326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes41c231.71$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9534547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes41c216$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1444655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8615454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes42c173.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7933340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No58c172.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes43c161.16$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.34136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No57c160$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed No57c160$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.814355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0328…9514backed Yes38c145$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No72c138.42$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4413332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503020%6 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed No57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.613957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bda…b7bbbacked No58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed No57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.612162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No60c112.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f78…d7c1backed Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4313142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4325855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…7db9backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Yes46c93.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.192025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes25c93.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked No14c90.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.68238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.48461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.412458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.410360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.412358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes13c79.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0538151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes26c77.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9242…60babacked No59c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d8…bf10backed Yes43c62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0192…6995backed Yes53c61.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Yes43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe680…d768backed Yes43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed No59c55.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.634858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.53857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes42c49.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.995339.6%21 W · 32 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6310…0d90backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202045%9 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…8aa8backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes35c42.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9839558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No58c40.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1219544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.22673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.28261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.25957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.212356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x167c…a88bbacked No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x530d…9b59backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc994…f4ebbacked Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84e5…2303backed Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4312…2b98backed Yes43c34.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.