Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4c38b19065281e34fefb5c2c835ccde7d86a8b85c84036cc4a89dacc9b47db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim Red Forceof T1, Nongshim Red Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Nongshim Red Force | 64c | 1,482$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…54f5backed T1 | 25c | 845.95$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Nongshim Red Force | 65c | 830$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…22d9backed Nongshim Red Force | 75c | 799.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 345 | 68.7%237 W · 108 L | +24.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed T1 | 35c | 616.78$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f7…a5e1backed T1 | 37c | 581.03$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked T1 | 41c | 538.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.21 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed T1 | 33c | 464.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.37 | 1,294 | 26.6%344 W · 950 L | +65.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Nongshim Red Force | 60c | 419$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed T1 | 21c | 401.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed T1 | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed T1 | 36c | 316.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 354 | 43.2%153 W · 201 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…8501backed T1 | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Nongshim Red Force | 75c | 264.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed T1 | 36c | 224.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 264 | 40.9%108 W · 156 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Nongshim Red Force | 73c | 210.01$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 978 | 54.4%532 W · 446 L | +48.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Nongshim Red Force | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 602 | 43.4%261 W · 341 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nongshim Red Force | 68c | 196.13$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed T1 | 36c | 140.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed T1 | 40c | 136.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 130.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 297 | 38.7%115 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Nongshim Red Force | 59c | 81.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Nongshim Red Force | 79c | 79.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 341 | 51.6%176 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…ecc5backed Nongshim Red Force | 69c | 73.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…c0d1backed T1 | 34c | 73.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 261 | 50.6%132 W · 129 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed T1 | 30c | 73.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 379 | 48.3%183 W · 196 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked T1 | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed T1 | 36c | 65.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed Nongshim Red Force | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 489 | 51.5%252 W · 237 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed T1 | 31c | 58.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c0…e808backed T1 | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…48f3backed T1 | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed T1 | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Nongshim Red Force | 66c | 52.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 421 | 43.9%185 W · 236 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…2827backed Nongshim Red Force | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed Nongshim Red Force | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…8fffbacked Nongshim Red Force | 75c | 41.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked T1 | 36c | 35.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Nongshim Red Force | 60c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…6b6cbacked Nongshim Red Force | 63c | 31.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -13.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 30.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked T1 | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ada…5c6cbacked Nongshim Red Force | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 232 | 64.2%149 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Nongshim Red Force | 72c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 209 | 67%140 W · 69 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Nongshim Red Force | 59c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 187 | 38.5%72 W · 115 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance QualifierNongshim Red Force won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerNongshim Red Force won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.