Asian League · resolved market
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac01d5852817c82c7289e504846f16c7602c627e5a7aaee7731cf5c1b8213da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 44c | 35,000$15,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,400 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 56c | 32,222$18,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,177.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5d…5244backed Yes | 0c | 4,159$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…324fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa829…bc90backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked No | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 1,312$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.92 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Yes | 80c | 811.25$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 20c | 811.25$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +387.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 58c | 516.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 299.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 76.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 37c | 61.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 43c | 52.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 40c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…94ebbacked No | 61c | 37.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…aff8backed No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e95…ea34backed Yes | 46c | 27.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 57c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…e4f6backed Yes | 49c | 21.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw?No won
- Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.