NFL · resolved market
Titans vs. 49ers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad68cef63e0d6fc1700ca4ea272a70c409e1a52ce93a6cc6373f711dba7f1d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Titans, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1508…01bdbacked Titans | 71c | 7,600$5,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked 49ers | 29c | 5,590$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.22 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked 49ers | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed 49ers | 30c | 1,800$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Titans | 68c | 838$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Titans | 71c | 703.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.07 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked 49ers | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Titans | 65c | 492.12$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Titans | 80c | 420$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed 49ers | 29c | 222$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked 49ers | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…be3ebacked 49ers | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed 49ers | 32c | 101.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked 49ers | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed 49ers | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…ef6cbacked 49ers | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Titans | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2786…7b3fbacked 49ers | 33c | 56.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed 49ers | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked 49ers | 32c | 47.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7920…096bbacked 49ers | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed 49ers | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Titans | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.