Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b59012546f87b71f88d54e8f2c17961b7783cf641efa66dfd383a46d314323f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 72c | 698.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 621.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 66c | 377.9$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 70c | 287.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 235.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 195.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 29c | 134.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Under | 26c | 96.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 61c | 81.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 52.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 34c | 44.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 39c | 42.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 34c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 34c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 34c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 35c | 29.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 39c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fa…b168backed Over | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 68c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.