Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc49ec6cd1816bc60e4ab4a6aa80ef95d33c449fdf624c0ca98e63626b4911576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 68c | 737.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 40c | 478.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.38 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 255.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 213$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 34c | 136$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 66c | 136$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 132.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Under | 52c | 52.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Over | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 60c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 60c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 60c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 60c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 60c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)Vissel Kōbe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.